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Afan Lido vs Trethomas Bluebirds — League #111 2026

Afan Lido
Afan Lido
Preview
19:30
Trethomas Bluebirds
Trethomas Bluebirds
2/12/2027League #111League #111 · South - 23
45%
Afan Lido
model favours
45%25%30%

Afan Lido sit 3, Trethomas Bluebirds 25 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Afan Lido45%
×Draw25%
Trethomas Bluebirds30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afan Lido
1.54
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.21

Afan Lido creates 27% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 5 away

creates per match

Afan Lido
1.48
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.60

allows per match

Afan Lido
1.82
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.60

finishing

Afan Lido+0.00on par
Trethomas Bluebirds+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afan Lido ↓

Trethomas Bluebirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Afan Lido or draw
70%
Afan Lido or Trethomas Bluebirds
75%
Draw or Trethomas Bluebirds
55%

Winning margin

Afan Lido wins by 2+
23%
Trethomas Bluebirds wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Afan Lido 1+ goals
79%
Afan Lido 2+ goals
45%
Afan Lido 3+ goals
20%
Trethomas Bluebirds 1+ goals
70%
Trethomas Bluebirds 2+ goals
34%
Trethomas Bluebirds 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Afan Lido (draw refunded)
60%
Trethomas Bluebirds (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afan Lido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

Trethomas Bluebirds away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afan Lido attack 1.48 + Trethomas Bluebirds defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Trethomas Bluebirds attack 0.60 + Afan Lido defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Afan Lido scores more
45%
level
25%
Trethomas Bluebirds scores more
30%

Afan Lido at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Afan Lido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Lido
LLWWW
Bluebirds
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Afan Lido host Trethomas Bluebirds

February 12, 2027: Afan Lido take on Trethomas Bluebirds in League #111. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.