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Afan Lido vs Treowen Stars — League #111 2026

Afan Lido
Afan Lido
Preview
18:30
Treowen Stars
Treowen Stars
4/9/2027League #111League #111 · South - 29
40%
Afan Lido
model favours
40%22%38%

Afan Lido sit 3, Treowen Stars 19 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Afan Lido40%
×Draw22%
Treowen Stars38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afan Lido
1.86
Treowen Stars
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 4 away

creates per match

Afan Lido
1.48
Treowen Stars
1.75

allows per match

Afan Lido
1.82
Treowen Stars
2.25

finishing

Afan Lido+0.00on par
Treowen Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afan Lido ↓

Treowen Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Afan Lido or draw
62%
Afan Lido or Treowen Stars
78%
Draw or Treowen Stars
60%

Winning margin

Afan Lido wins by 2+
22%
Treowen Stars wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Afan Lido 1+ goals
84%
Afan Lido 2+ goals
55%
Afan Lido 3+ goals
28%
Treowen Stars 1+ goals
83%
Treowen Stars 2+ goals
53%
Treowen Stars 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Afan Lido (draw refunded)
52%
Treowen Stars (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afan Lido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

Treowen Stars away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afan Lido attack 1.48 + Treowen Stars defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.86

Treowen Stars attack 1.75 + Afan Lido defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Afan Lido scores more
40%
level
22%
Treowen Stars scores more
38%

Afan Lido at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Afan Lido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Lido
LLWWW
Stars
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Afan Lido host Treowen Stars

April 9, 2027: Afan Lido take on Treowen Stars in League #111. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.