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Afan Lido vs Pontypridd Town — League #111 2026

Afan Lido
Afan Lido
FT
3 – 2
Pontypridd Town
Pontypridd Town
J. Edwards 79' (pen), 72' (pen), 50' (pen)
S. Morris 48' (OG)
G. Beddard 12'
11/19/2021League #111League #111 · South - 15Princess Margaret Way

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Afan Lido36%
×Draw24%
Pontypridd Town40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afan Lido
1.49
Pontypridd Town
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 8 away

creates per match

Afan Lido
1.48
Pontypridd Town
1.38

allows per match

Afan Lido
1.82
Pontypridd Town
1.50

finishing

Afan Lido+0.00on par
Pontypridd Town+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afan Lido ↓

Pontypridd Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Afan Lido or draw
60%
Afan Lido or Pontypridd Town
76%
Draw or Pontypridd Town
64%

Winning margin

Afan Lido wins by 2+
17%
Pontypridd Town wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Afan Lido 1+ goals
77%
Afan Lido 2+ goals
44%
Afan Lido 3+ goals
19%
Pontypridd Town 1+ goals
80%
Pontypridd Town 2+ goals
47%
Pontypridd Town 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Afan Lido (draw refunded)
47%
Pontypridd Town (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afan Lido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

Pontypridd Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afan Lido attack 1.48 + Pontypridd Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49

Pontypridd Town attack 1.38 + Afan Lido defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Afan Lido scores more
36%
level
24%
Pontypridd Town scores more
40%

Pontypridd Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pontypridd Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
G. Beddard
48'
S. MorrisOwn goal
49'
D. Vincent
50'
J. EdwardsPenalty
72'
J. EdwardsPenalty
79'
J. EdwardsPenalty
86'
O. Dalton
86'
O. Dalton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #111: Afan Lido 3–2 Pontypridd Town

Afan Lido beat Pontypridd Town 3-2 in League #111 on November 19, 2021.

Goals: G. Beddard (12'), S. Morris (48' o.g.), J. Edwards (50' pen, 72' pen, 79' pen).

The match was played at Princess Margaret Way in Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot.