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Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town — League #111 2026

Afan Lido
Afan Lido
FT
0 – 4
Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town
N. Daley 89'
T. Dyson 56'
L. Thomas 54', 39'
10/30/2021League #111League #111 · South - 13Princess Margaret Way

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Afan Lido33%
×Draw21%
Carmarthen Town46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afan Lido
1.79
Carmarthen Town
2.13

Carmarthen Town creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

creates per match

Afan Lido
1.48
Carmarthen Town
2.44

allows per match

Afan Lido
1.82
Carmarthen Town
2.11

finishing

Afan Lido+0.00on par
Carmarthen Town+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afan Lido ↓

Carmarthen Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Afan Lido or draw
54%
Afan Lido or Carmarthen Town
79%
Draw or Carmarthen Town
67%

Winning margin

Afan Lido wins by 2+
17%
Carmarthen Town wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Afan Lido 1+ goals
83%
Afan Lido 2+ goals
53%
Afan Lido 3+ goals
26%
Carmarthen Town 1+ goals
88%
Carmarthen Town 2+ goals
63%
Carmarthen Town 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Afan Lido (draw refunded)
42%
Carmarthen Town (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afan Lido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

Carmarthen Town away — creates 2.44, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afan Lido attack 1.48 + Carmarthen Town defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.79

Carmarthen Town attack 2.44 + Afan Lido defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Afan Lido scores more
33%
level
21%
Carmarthen Town scores more
46%

Carmarthen Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Carmarthen Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
L. Thomas
44'
J. Hall
54'
L. Thomas
56'
T. Dyson
89'
N. Daley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #111: Afan Lido 0–4 Carmarthen Town

Carmarthen Town beat Afan Lido 4-0 in League #111 on October 30, 2021.

Goals: L. Thomas (39', 54'), T. Dyson (56'), N. Daley (89').

The match was played at Princess Margaret Way in Port Talbot / Porth Talbot, Neath Port Talbot.