Afan Lido 2–1 Carmarthen Town: Result & Stats

Afan Lido

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Carmarthen Town

M. Jones 90'

K. Howard 37'

T. Hicks 79'

9/4/2012

League #110 · 1st Phase - 4Marston Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Afan Lido54%

×Draw23%

Carmarthen Town24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Afan LidoExpected goals in this matchCarmarthen Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.15

Afan Lido

1.85

Carmarthen Town

1.15

Afan Lido creates 61% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

1.30

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Afan Lido

1.20

Carmarthen Town

1.00

allows per match

Afan Lido

1.30

Carmarthen Town

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afan Lido+0.00on par

Carmarthen Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afan Lido ↓

Carmarthen Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Afan Lido or draw

76%

Afan Lido or Carmarthen Town

77%

Draw or Carmarthen Town

46%

Winning margin

Afan Lido wins by 2+

30%

Carmarthen Town wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Afan Lido 1+ goals

84%

Afan Lido 2+ goals

55%

Afan Lido 3+ goals

28%

Carmarthen Town 1+ goals

68%

Carmarthen Town 2+ goals

32%

Carmarthen Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Afan Lido (draw refunded)

69%

Carmarthen Town (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afan Lido at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Carmarthen Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afan Lido attack 1.20 + Carmarthen Town defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Carmarthen Town attack 1.00 + Afan Lido defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Afan Lido scores more

54%

level

23%

Carmarthen Town scores more

24%

Afan Lido at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Afan Lido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

K. Howard

58'

L. Thomas← Casey Thomas

63'

T. Hicks← J. Christopher

65'

L. Jeanne← Corey Thomas

67'

A. Gammond← G. Phillips

79'

T. Hicks

84'

J. Doyle← K. James

90'

M. Jones

Afan

Carmarthen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

67'▲A. Gammond←▼G. Phillips

84'▲J. Doyle←▼K. James

Afan Lido substitutes

GammondDoyleJefferiesFleming

58'▲L. Thomas←▼Casey Thomas

63'▲T. Hicks←▼J. Christopher

65'▲L. Jeanne←▼Corey Thomas

Carmarthen Town substitutes

ThomasHicksJeanneSmothersWilson