AF Elbasani 1–1 Flamurtari: Result & Stats

AF Elbasani

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Flamurtari

2/4/2024

1st Division · Round 19Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AF Elbasani56%

×Draw22%

Flamurtari21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AF ElbasaniExpected goals in this matchFlamurtari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.07

AF Elbasani

1.88

Flamurtari

1.07

AF Elbasani creates 76% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 55 away

2.71

creates per match

1.27

0.88

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

AF Elbasani

2.71

Flamurtari

1.27

allows per match

AF Elbasani

0.88

Flamurtari

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Flamurtari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw

79%

AF Elbasani or Flamurtari

78%

Draw or Flamurtari

44%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+

32%

Flamurtari wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals

85%

AF Elbasani 2+ goals

56%

AF Elbasani 3+ goals

29%

Flamurtari 1+ goals

66%

Flamurtari 2+ goals

29%

Flamurtari 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)

72%

Flamurtari (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 2.71 + Flamurtari defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.88

Flamurtari attack 1.27 + AF Elbasani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AF Elbasani scores more

56%

level

22%

Flamurtari scores more

21%

AF Elbasani at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff