AF Elbasani 1–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Result & Stats

AF Elbasani

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

B. Tsague 90+3'

Léo Melo 90+1'

R. Lushkja 32'

2/9/2025

Superliga · Round 24Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AF Elbasani37%

×Draw29%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AF ElbasaniExpected goals in this matchEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.06

AF Elbasani

1.14

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 94 away

1.29

creates per match

1.21

0.92

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

AF Elbasani

1.29

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.21

allows per match

AF Elbasani

0.92

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw

67%

AF Elbasani or Egnatia Rrogozhinë

71%

Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë

63%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+

15%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals

68%

AF Elbasani 2+ goals

32%

AF Elbasani 3+ goals

11%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals

65%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals

29%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)

53%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 1.29 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.21 + AF Elbasani defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AF Elbasani scores more

37%

level

29%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more

33%

AF Elbasani at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

32'

37'

38'

38'

46'

Z. Əliyev← F. Dulysse

61'

K. Loukili← X. Lajthia

61'

64'

70'

76'

76'

C. Dros← K. Qose

76'

Léo Melo← R. Lushkja

76'

R. Malota← E. Sota

76'

S. Guindo← S. Bakayoko

82'

Leo Melo

90+1'

Léo Melo

90+3'

B. Tsague

AF

Egnatia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: I. Gvozdenović

61'▲K. Loukili←▼X. Lajthia

61'▲Zé Gomes←▼A. Ibrahim

76'▲A. Gjoni←▼L. Doukouo

76'▲C. Dros←▼K. Qose

AF Elbasani substitutes

LoukiliGomesGjoniDrosHaliliBellojQaqiKasaTotoshiGega

Manager: E. Tetova

46'▲Z. Əliyev←▼F. Dulysse

76'▲Léo Melo←▼R. Lushkja

76'▲R. Malota←▼E. Sota

76'▲S. Guindo←▼S. Bakayoko

Egnatia Rrogozhinë substitutes

ƏliyevMeloMalotaGuindoDukaKukaYahayaMadani