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AF Elbasani vs Bylis — 1st Division 2019

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bylis
Bylis
12/21/20231st Division1st Division · Round 11Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AF Elbasani56%
×Draw23%
Bylis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AF Elbasani
1.87
Bylis
1.08

AF Elbasani creates 73% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

AF Elbasani
2.71
Bylis
1.29

allows per match

AF Elbasani
0.88
Bylis
1.03

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par
Bylis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Bylis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw
78%
AF Elbasani or Bylis
77%
Draw or Bylis
44%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+
32%
Bylis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals
85%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
56%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
29%
Bylis 1+ goals
66%
Bylis 2+ goals
29%
Bylis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
72%
Bylis (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Bylis away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 2.71 + Bylis defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.87

Bylis attack 1.29 + AF Elbasani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AF Elbasani scores more
56%
level
23%
Bylis scores more
22%

AF Elbasani at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: AF Elbasani 2–2 Bylis

AF Elbasani and Bylis drew 2-2 in 1st Division on December 21, 2023.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.