Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AEL vs Nea Salamis — 1. Division 2019

AEL
AEL
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
2/1/20241. Division1. Division · Round 22Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

AEL46%
×Draw25%
Nea Salamis29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEL
1.52
Nea Salamis
1.15

AEL creates 32% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 88 away

creates per match

AEL
1.53
Nea Salamis
1.11

allows per match

AEL
1.18
Nea Salamis
1.50

finishing

AEL+0.00on par
Nea Salamis+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEL ↓

Nea Salamis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AEL or draw
71%
AEL or Nea Salamis
75%
Draw or Nea Salamis
54%

Winning margin

AEL wins by 2+
23%
Nea Salamis wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AEL 1+ goals
78%
AEL 2+ goals
45%
AEL 3+ goals
20%
Nea Salamis 1+ goals
68%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
32%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AEL (draw refunded)
61%
Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEL at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Nea Salamis away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEL attack 1.53 + Nea Salamis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nea Salamis attack 1.11 + AEL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AEL scores more
46%
level
25%
Nea Salamis scores more
29%

AEL at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AEL vs Nea Salamis

AEL beat Nea Salamis 3-1 in 1. Division on February 1, 2024.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.