AEK Larnaca 1–0 Anorthosis: Result & Stats

AEK Larnaca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Anorthosis

2/17/2024

1. Division · Round 26AEK Arena - George Karapatakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

AEK Larnaca47%

×Draw26%

Anorthosis27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AEK LarnacaExpected goals in this matchAnorthosis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.03

AEK Larnaca

1.45

Anorthosis

1.03

AEK Larnaca creates 41% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 115 away

1.74

creates per match

1.17

0.89

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

AEK Larnaca

1.74

Anorthosis

1.17

allows per match

AEK Larnaca

0.89

Anorthosis

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Anorthosis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

Anorthosis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw

73%

AEK Larnaca or Anorthosis

74%

Draw or Anorthosis

53%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

23%

Anorthosis wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

77%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

42%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

18%

Anorthosis 1+ goals

64%

Anorthosis 2+ goals

28%

Anorthosis 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

64%

Anorthosis (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Anorthosis away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.16 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 1.74 + Anorthosis defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.45

Anorthosis attack 1.17 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more

47%

level

26%

Anorthosis scores more

27%

AEK Larnaca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff