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ADT vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

ADT
ADT
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
6/19/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

ADT53%
×Draw25%
UTC Cajamarca22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADT
1.56
UTC Cajamarca
0.90

ADT creates 73% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 144 away

creates per match

ADT
1.49
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

ADT
0.88
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

ADT+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ADT or draw
78%
ADT or UTC Cajamarca
75%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
47%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+
28%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals
79%
ADT 2+ goals
46%
ADT 3+ goals
21%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
59%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
23%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)
71%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ADT scores more
53%
level
25%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
22%

ADT at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: ADT 1–2 UTC Cajamarca

UTC Cajamarca beat ADT 2-1 in Primera División on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.