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Adriese vs Portogruaro — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Adriese
Adriese
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Portogruaro
Portogruaro
11/26/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Adriese53%
×Draw24%
Portogruaro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adriese
1.67
Portogruaro
1.02

Adriese creates 64% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 70 away

creates per match

Adriese
1.64
Portogruaro
0.96

allows per match

Adriese
1.07
Portogruaro
1.71

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par
Portogruaro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Portogruaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Adriese or draw
77%
Adriese or Portogruaro
76%
Draw or Portogruaro
47%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+
28%
Portogruaro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals
81%
Adriese 2+ goals
50%
Adriese 3+ goals
23%
Portogruaro 1+ goals
64%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
27%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)
69%
Portogruaro (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Portogruaro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Portogruaro defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Portogruaro attack 0.96 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Adriese scores more
53%
level
24%
Portogruaro scores more
23%

Adriese at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Adriese 5–0 Portogruaro

Adriese beat Portogruaro 5-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi in Adria.