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Adria vs Zidgrad Idrija — 3. SNL - West 2020

Adria
Adria
Preview
16:00
Zidgrad Idrija
Zidgrad Idrija
3/27/20273. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 18
57%
Adria
model favours
57%20%23%

Adria and Zidgrad Idrija have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Adria57%
×Draw20%
Zidgrad Idrija23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adria
2.21
Zidgrad Idrija
1.35

Adria creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Adria
1.50
Zidgrad Idrija
1.00

allows per match

Adria
1.70
Zidgrad Idrija
2.92

finishing

Adria+0.00on par
Zidgrad Idrija+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adria ↓

Zidgrad Idrija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Adria or draw
77%
Adria or Zidgrad Idrija
80%
Draw or Zidgrad Idrija
43%

Winning margin

Adria wins by 2+
35%
Zidgrad Idrija wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Adria 1+ goals
89%
Adria 2+ goals
65%
Adria 3+ goals
38%
Zidgrad Idrija 1+ goals
74%
Zidgrad Idrija 2+ goals
39%
Zidgrad Idrija 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Adria (draw refunded)
71%
Zidgrad Idrija (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adria at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Zidgrad Idrija away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adria attack 1.50 + Zidgrad Idrija defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.21

Zidgrad Idrija attack 1.00 + Adria defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Adria scores more
57%
level
20%
Zidgrad Idrija scores more
23%

Adria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Adria
LLDL
Idrija
DDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adria face Zidgrad Idrija (3. SNL - West)

3. SNL - West returns with Adria hosting Zidgrad Idrija. Match starts March 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.