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Adria vs Rudar Trbovlje — 3. SNL - West 2020

Adria
Adria
Preview
16:00
Rudar Trbovlje
Rudar Trbovlje
3/13/20273. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 16
40%
Rudar Trbovlje
model favours
36%23%40%

Adria and Rudar Trbovlje have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Adria36%
×Draw23%
Rudar Trbovlje40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adria
1.56
Rudar Trbovlje
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Adria
1.50
Rudar Trbovlje
1.62

allows per match

Adria
1.70
Rudar Trbovlje
1.62

finishing

Adria+0.00on par
Rudar Trbovlje+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adria ↓

Rudar Trbovlje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Adria or draw
60%
Adria or Rudar Trbovlje
77%
Draw or Rudar Trbovlje
64%

Winning margin

Adria wins by 2+
18%
Rudar Trbovlje wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Adria 1+ goals
79%
Adria 2+ goals
46%
Adria 3+ goals
21%
Rudar Trbovlje 1+ goals
81%
Rudar Trbovlje 2+ goals
49%
Rudar Trbovlje 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Adria (draw refunded)
47%
Rudar Trbovlje (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adria at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Rudar Trbovlje away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adria attack 1.50 + Rudar Trbovlje defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rudar Trbovlje attack 1.62 + Adria defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Adria scores more
36%
level
23%
Rudar Trbovlje scores more
40%

Rudar Trbovlje at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rudar Trbovlje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Adria
LLDL
Trbovlje
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adria vs Rudar Trbovlje — Match Preview

Adria face Rudar Trbovlje on March 13, 2027 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.