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Adria vs IB 1975 Ljubljana — 3. SNL - West 2020

Adria
Adria
Preview
15:00
IB 1975 Ljubljana
IB 1975 Ljubljana
4/17/20273. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 21
45%
Adria
model favours
45%23%31%

Adria and IB 1975 Ljubljana have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Adria45%
×Draw23%
IB 1975 Ljubljana31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adria
1.75
IB 1975 Ljubljana
1.42

Adria creates 23% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Adria
1.50
IB 1975 Ljubljana
1.15

allows per match

Adria
1.70
IB 1975 Ljubljana
2.00

finishing

Adria+0.00on par
IB 1975 Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adria ↓

IB 1975 Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Adria or draw
69%
Adria or IB 1975 Ljubljana
77%
Draw or IB 1975 Ljubljana
55%

Winning margin

Adria wins by 2+
24%
IB 1975 Ljubljana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Adria 1+ goals
83%
Adria 2+ goals
52%
Adria 3+ goals
25%
IB 1975 Ljubljana 1+ goals
76%
IB 1975 Ljubljana 2+ goals
41%
IB 1975 Ljubljana 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Adria (draw refunded)
59%
IB 1975 Ljubljana (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adria at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

IB 1975 Ljubljana away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adria attack 1.50 + IB 1975 Ljubljana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

IB 1975 Ljubljana attack 1.15 + Adria defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Adria scores more
45%
level
23%
IB 1975 Ljubljana scores more
31%

Adria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Adria
LLDL
Ljubljana
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Adria host IB 1975 Ljubljana

April 17, 2027: Adria take on IB 1975 Ljubljana in 3. SNL - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.