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Adjidja vs Police — Championnat National 2019

Adjidja
Adjidja
FT
1 – 1
Police
Police
12/11/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 7Stade de Toffo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Adjidja48%
×Draw28%
Police24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adjidja
1.35
Police
0.88

Adjidja creates 53% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 75 away

creates per match

Adjidja
1.09
Police
0.88

allows per match

Adjidja
0.88
Police
1.61

finishing

Adjidja+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adjidja ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Adjidja or draw
76%
Adjidja or Police
72%
Draw or Police
52%

Winning margin

Adjidja wins by 2+
23%
Police wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Adjidja 1+ goals
74%
Adjidja 2+ goals
39%
Adjidja 3+ goals
15%
Police 1+ goals
59%
Police 2+ goals
22%
Police 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Adjidja (draw refunded)
66%
Police (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adjidja at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.88 · 76 matches

Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adjidja attack 1.09 + Police defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Police attack 0.88 + Adjidja defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adjidja scores more
48%
level
28%
Police scores more
24%

Adjidja at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adjidja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Adjidja 1–1 Police

Adjidja and Police drew 1-1 in Championnat National on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Toffo in Toffo.