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Adelaide Victory vs West Adelaide — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
FT
3 – 0
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
6/12/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 8Rushworth Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Adelaide Victory37%
×Draw25%
West Adelaide37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Victory
1.38
West Adelaide
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 47 away

creates per match

Adelaide Victory
1.47
West Adelaide
1.53

allows per match

Adelaide Victory
1.25
West Adelaide
1.28

finishing

Adelaide Victory+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Victory ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Adelaide Victory or draw
63%
Adelaide Victory or West Adelaide
75%
Draw or West Adelaide
63%

Winning margin

Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
17%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
75%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
40%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
16%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
75%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
40%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
50%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Victory at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Victory attack 1.47 + West Adelaide defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

West Adelaide attack 1.53 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Adelaide Victory scores more
37%
level
25%
West Adelaide scores more
37%

Adelaide Victory at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Adelaide Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Victory vs West Adelaide

Adelaide Victory beat West Adelaide 3-0 in South Australia State League 1 on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Rushworth Reserve in Adelaide.