Adelaide United 1–4 Sydney: Result & Stats

Adelaide United

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Sydney

Y. Dukuly 89'

P. Wood 71'

Bobo 58'

A. Le Fondre 54', 6'

5/29/2021

A-League · Round 23Coopers Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Adelaide United39%

×Draw24%

Sydney36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide UnitedExpected goals in this matchSydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.47

Adelaide United

1.54

Sydney

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

1.77

creates per match

1.46

1.48

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Adelaide United

1.77

Sydney

1.46

allows per match

Adelaide United

1.48

Sydney

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide United+0.00on par

Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide United ↓

Sydney →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Adelaide United or draw

64%

Adelaide United or Sydney

76%

Draw or Sydney

61%

Winning margin

Adelaide United wins by 2+

19%

Sydney wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Adelaide United 1+ goals

79%

Adelaide United 2+ goals

45%

Adelaide United 3+ goals

20%

Sydney 1+ goals

77%

Sydney 2+ goals

43%

Sydney 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Adelaide United (draw refunded)

52%

Sydney (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.48 · 111 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide United attack 1.77 + Sydney defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sydney attack 1.46 + Adelaide United defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adelaide United scores more

39%

level

24%

Sydney scores more

36%

Adelaide United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Adelaide United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Adam Le Fondre

Sydney · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

A. Le Fondre↳ R. Grant

41'

54'

58'

63'

63'

69'

B. Halloran← M. Marrone

69'

R. Strain← P. Niyongabire

70'

A. Le Fondre← P. Wood

70'

L. Brattan← P. Retre

71'

P. Wood↳ M. Ninkovic

75'

J. King← B. Warland

75'

M. Ninkovic← H. Van Der Saag

77'

J. Caletti← J. Caletti

77'

S. Mauk← L. D'Arrigo

79'

Bobo← L. Ivanovic

83'

A. Toure← Y. Dukuly

88'

P. Wood

89'

Y. Dukuly↳ M. Marrone

90+4'

H. Van Der Saag

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AdelaideSydney

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots16

5Corners6

11Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots16

3On Target8

2Off Target6

4Blocked2

7Inside Box13

2Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

518Total Passes441

431Accurate Passes358

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides4