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Adelaide Cobras vs Vipers — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Cobras
Adelaide Cobras
FT
2 – 1
Vipers
Vipers
4/8/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 7Pro Paint & Panel Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Adelaide Cobras50%
×Draw22%
Vipers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Cobras
1.96
Vipers
1.41

Adelaide Cobras creates 39% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 33 away

creates per match

Adelaide Cobras
1.41
Vipers
1.24

allows per match

Adelaide Cobras
1.57
Vipers
2.52

finishing

Adelaide Cobras+0.00on par
Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Cobras ↓

Vipers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Adelaide Cobras or draw
72%
Adelaide Cobras or Vipers
78%
Draw or Vipers
50%

Winning margin

Adelaide Cobras wins by 2+
29%
Vipers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Adelaide Cobras 1+ goals
86%
Adelaide Cobras 2+ goals
58%
Adelaide Cobras 3+ goals
31%
Vipers 1+ goals
76%
Vipers 2+ goals
41%
Vipers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Cobras (draw refunded)
64%
Vipers (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Cobras at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 54 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Cobras attack 1.41 + Vipers defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.96

Vipers attack 1.24 + Adelaide Cobras defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Adelaide Cobras scores more
50%
level
22%
Vipers scores more
28%

Adelaide Cobras at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Adelaide Cobras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Cobras vs Vipers

Adelaide Cobras beat Vipers 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Pro Paint & Panel Oval in Plympton.