Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adelaide Blue Eagles vs West Adelaide — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
FT
1 – 1
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
3/12/2019South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 3Marden Sports Complex (Adelaide)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles53%
×Draw23%
West Adelaide24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.79
West Adelaide
1.11

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 61% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 29 away

creates per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.42
West Adelaide
1.00

allows per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.23
West Adelaide
2.17

finishing

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Blue Eagles ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Adelaide Blue Eagles or draw
76%
Adelaide Blue Eagles or West Adelaide
77%
Draw or West Adelaide
47%

Winning margin

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
30%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
53%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
26%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
67%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
30%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
69%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Blue Eagles at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 1.42 + West Adelaide defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.79

West Adelaide attack 1.00 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
53%
level
23%
West Adelaide scores more
24%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Blue Eagles vs West Adelaide

Adelaide Blue Eagles and West Adelaide drew 1-1 in South Australia NPL on March 12, 2019.

The match was played at Marden Sports Complex (Adelaide).