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Adanaspor vs Menemen FK — 1. Lig 2018

Adanaspor
Adanaspor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Menemen FK
Menemen FK
12/14/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 155 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Adanaspor41%
×Draw26%
Menemen FK33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adanaspor
1.44
Menemen FK
1.27

Adanaspor creates 13% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 52 away

creates per match

Adanaspor
1.25
Menemen FK
1.06

allows per match

Adanaspor
1.47
Menemen FK
1.62

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par
Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Menemen FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw
67%
Adanaspor or Menemen FK
74%
Draw or Menemen FK
59%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+
20%
Menemen FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals
76%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
42%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
18%
Menemen FK 1+ goals
72%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
36%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)
55%
Menemen FK (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 117 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 1.25 + Menemen FK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Menemen FK attack 1.06 + Adanaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adanaspor scores more
41%
level
26%
Menemen FK scores more
33%

Adanaspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Adanaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Adanaspor 1–3 Menemen FK

Menemen FK beat Adanaspor 3-1 in 1. Lig on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.