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Adama Kenema vs Fasil Ketema — Premier League 2019

Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
2/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Adama Kenema31%
×Draw30%
Fasil Ketema39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adama Kenema
0.96
Fasil Ketema
1.10

Fasil Ketema creates 15% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Adama Kenema
1.02
Fasil Ketema
1.08

allows per match

Adama Kenema
1.11
Fasil Ketema
0.89

finishing

Adama Kenema+0.00on par
Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adama Kenema ↓

Fasil Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Adama Kenema or draw
61%
Adama Kenema or Fasil Ketema
70%
Draw or Fasil Ketema
69%

Winning margin

Adama Kenema wins by 2+
11%
Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Adama Kenema 1+ goals
62%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
25%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
7%
Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
67%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
30%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
45%
Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adama Kenema at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 101 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adama Kenema attack 1.02 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Adama Kenema defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adama Kenema scores more
31%
level
30%
Fasil Ketema scores more
39%

Fasil Ketema at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adama Kenema vs Fasil Ketema

Adama Kenema and Fasil Ketema drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.