Ada Velipojë 1–0 Burreli: Result & Stats

Ada Velipojë

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burreli

3/23/2013

1st Division · Round 22Fusha Sportive Adriatik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ada Velipojë51%

×Draw25%

Burreli24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ada VelipojëExpected goals in this matchBurreli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.99

Ada Velipojë

1.56

Burreli

0.99

Ada Velipojë creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 106 away

1.67

creates per match

0.86

1.11

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Ada Velipojë

1.67

Burreli

0.86

allows per match

Ada Velipojë

1.11

Burreli

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ada Velipojë+0.00on par

Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ada Velipojë ↓

Burreli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ada Velipojë or draw

76%

Ada Velipojë or Burreli

75%

Draw or Burreli

49%

Winning margin

Ada Velipojë wins by 2+

26%

Burreli wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ada Velipojë 1+ goals

79%

Ada Velipojë 2+ goals

46%

Ada Velipojë 3+ goals

21%

Burreli 1+ goals

63%

Burreli 2+ goals

26%

Burreli 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ada Velipojë (draw refunded)

68%

Burreli (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ada Velipojë at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ada Velipojë attack 1.67 + Burreli defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Burreli attack 0.86 + Ada Velipojë defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ada Velipojë scores more

51%

level

25%

Burreli scores more

24%

Ada Velipojë at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ada Velipojë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff