Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AD Guanacasteca vs Sporting San Jose — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Guanacasteca
AD Guanacasteca
FT
0 – 1
Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Joseadvanced
J. Valderramos 23'
5/31/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

AD Guanacasteca36%
×Draw28%
Sporting San Jose36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Guanacasteca
1.20
Sporting San Jose
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 39 away

creates per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.37
Sporting San Jose
1.31

allows per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.06
Sporting San Jose
1.03

finishing

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par
Sporting San Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Guanacasteca ↓

Sporting San Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AD Guanacasteca or draw
64%
AD Guanacasteca or Sporting San Jose
72%
Draw or Sporting San Jose
64%

Winning margin

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+
15%
Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals
70%
AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals
34%
AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals
12%
Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
70%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
33%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)
50%
Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Guanacasteca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

Sporting San Jose away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.37 + Sporting San Jose defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sporting San Jose attack 1.31 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AD Guanacasteca scores more
36%
level
28%
Sporting San Jose scores more
36%

AD Guanacasteca at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
J. Valderramos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Guanacasteca vs Sporting San Jose

Sporting San Jose beat AD Guanacasteca 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on May 31, 2020.

Goals: J. Valderramos (23').

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge in San José.