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AD Cofutpa vs Quepos Cambute — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Cofutpa
AD Cofutpa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Quepos Cambute
Quepos Cambute
1/25/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 3Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

AD Cofutpa44%
×Draw23%
Quepos Cambute33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Cofutpa
1.79
Quepos Cambute
1.54

AD Cofutpa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 71 away

creates per match

AD Cofutpa
1.80
Quepos Cambute
1.59

allows per match

AD Cofutpa
1.49
Quepos Cambute
1.79

finishing

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par
Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Cofutpa ↓

Quepos Cambute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

AD Cofutpa or draw
67%
AD Cofutpa or Quepos Cambute
77%
Draw or Quepos Cambute
56%

Winning margin

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+
23%
Quepos Cambute wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals
83%
AD Cofutpa 2+ goals
53%
AD Cofutpa 3+ goals
26%
Quepos Cambute 1+ goals
79%
Quepos Cambute 2+ goals
45%
Quepos Cambute 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)
57%
Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Cofutpa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.49 · 123 matches

Quepos Cambute away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Cofutpa attack 1.80 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Quepos Cambute attack 1.59 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AD Cofutpa scores more
44%
level
23%
Quepos Cambute scores more
33%

AD Cofutpa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AD Cofutpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AD Cofutpa 3–1 Quepos Cambute

AD Cofutpa beat Quepos Cambute 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on January 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís in Palmares.