AD Cofutpa 2–4 Deportivo Cartagena: Result & Stats

AD Cofutpa

FT

2 – 4

Deportivo Cartagena

9/26/2018

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 12Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís (Palmares)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

AD Cofutpa46%

×Draw22%

Deportivo Cartagena32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD CofutpaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.61

AD Cofutpa

1.94

Deportivo Cartagena

1.61

AD Cofutpa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 32 away

1.81

creates per match

1.72

1.50

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

AD Cofutpa

1.81

Deportivo Cartagena

1.72

allows per match

AD Cofutpa

1.50

Deportivo Cartagena

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Cofutpa ↓

Deportivo Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

AD Cofutpa or draw

68%

AD Cofutpa or Deportivo Cartagena

78%

Draw or Deportivo Cartagena

54%

Winning margin

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals

86%

AD Cofutpa 2+ goals

58%

AD Cofutpa 3+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals

48%

Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Cofutpa at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.50 · 122 matches

Deportivo Cartagena away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Cofutpa attack 1.81 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.94

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.72 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AD Cofutpa scores more

46%

level

22%

Deportivo Cartagena scores more

32%

AD Cofutpa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AD Cofutpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff