AD Ceuta FC vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018
Mallorca win just 11% of their away games
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
AD Ceuta FC38%
Mallorca33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AD Ceuta FC creates 10% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AD Ceuta FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches
Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AD Ceuta FC attack 1.33 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.12
Mallorca attack 0.93 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
AD Ceuta FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute
- AD Ceuta FC and Mallorca have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
Racing Santander
Malaga
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
Castellón
Burgos
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
CordobaAD Ceuta FC
Albacete
FC Andorra
Granada CF
Real Sociedad II
Leganes
Valladolid
Cadiz
Mirandes
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
ZaragozaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
AD Ceuta FC host Mallorca on Sunday, 14 February 2027 at 16:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Preview: AD Ceuta FC host Mallorca
February 14, 2027: AD Ceuta FC take on Mallorca in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
AD Ceuta FC host Mallorca at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.