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AD Carmelita vs Marineros de Puntarenas — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
FT
4 – 3
Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
9/11/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 8Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AD Carmelita42%
×Draw24%
Marineros de Puntarenas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Carmelita
1.61
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.43

AD Carmelita creates 13% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 37 away

creates per match

AD Carmelita
1.64
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.54

allows per match

AD Carmelita
1.31
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.59

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par
Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Marineros de Puntarenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw
66%
AD Carmelita or Marineros de Puntarenas
76%
Draw or Marineros de Puntarenas
58%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+
21%
Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals
80%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
48%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
22%
Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
76%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
42%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
55%
Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Marineros de Puntarenas away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.54 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AD Carmelita scores more
42%
level
24%
Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
34%

AD Carmelita at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AD Carmelita 4–3 Marineros de Puntarenas

AD Carmelita beat Marineros de Puntarenas 4-3 in Liga de Ascenso on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.