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AD Carmelita vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
FT
1 – 1
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
11/23/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

AD Carmelita53%
×Draw23%
AS Puma Generalena24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Carmelita
1.77
AS Puma Generalena
1.10

AD Carmelita creates 61% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 73 away

creates per match

AD Carmelita
1.64
AS Puma Generalena
0.89

allows per match

AD Carmelita
1.31
AS Puma Generalena
1.90

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw
76%
AD Carmelita or AS Puma Generalena
77%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
47%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+
29%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals
83%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
53%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
26%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
67%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
30%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
69%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.90 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.77

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.89 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AD Carmelita scores more
53%
level
23%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
24%

AD Carmelita at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Carmelita vs AS Puma Generalena

AD Carmelita and AS Puma Generalena drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.