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ACV vs Rijnsburgse Boys — Tweede Divisie 2019

ACV
ACV
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
11/18/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 13Sportpark ICT Specialist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ACV34%
×Draw23%
Rijnsburgse Boys43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACV
1.56
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.78

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 99 away

creates per match

ACV
1.49
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.95

allows per match

ACV
1.61
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.64

finishing

ACV+0.00on par
Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

Rijnsburgse Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ACV or draw
57%
ACV or Rijnsburgse Boys
77%
Draw or Rijnsburgse Boys
66%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+
16%
Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals
79%
ACV 2+ goals
46%
ACV 3+ goals
21%
Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
83%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
53%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)
44%
Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Rijnsburgse Boys away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.64 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.49 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 1.95 + ACV defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ACV scores more
34%
level
23%
Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
43%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACV vs Rijnsburgse Boys

ACV beat Rijnsburgse Boys 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark ICT Specialist in Assen.