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ACV vs Excelsior Maassluis — Tweede Divisie 2019

ACV
ACV
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
12/16/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 17Sportpark ICT Specialist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ACV47%
×Draw23%
Excelsior Maassluis30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACV
1.79
Excelsior Maassluis
1.39

ACV creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 104 away

creates per match

ACV
1.49
Excelsior Maassluis
1.16

allows per match

ACV
1.61
Excelsior Maassluis
2.09

finishing

ACV+0.00on par
Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

ACV or draw
70%
ACV or Excelsior Maassluis
77%
Draw or Excelsior Maassluis
53%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+
25%
Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals
83%
ACV 2+ goals
53%
ACV 3+ goals
26%
Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
75%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
40%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)
61%
Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.49 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.79

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + ACV defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ACV scores more
47%
level
23%
Excelsior Maassluis scores more
30%

ACV at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ACV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACV vs Excelsior Maassluis

ACV beat Excelsior Maassluis 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark ICT Specialist in Assen.