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Achuapa vs Xelajú — Liga Nacional 2019

Achuapa
Achuapa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Xelajú
Xelajú
11/12/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 12Estadio Winston Pineda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Achuapa45%
×Draw29%
Xelajú26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Achuapa
1.27
Xelajú
0.89

Achuapa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 149 away

creates per match

Achuapa
1.25
Xelajú
0.75

allows per match

Achuapa
1.02
Xelajú
1.30

finishing

Achuapa+0.00on par
Xelajú+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achuapa ↓

Xelajú →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Achuapa or draw
74%
Achuapa or Xelajú
71%
Draw or Xelajú
55%

Winning margin

Achuapa wins by 2+
21%
Xelajú wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Achuapa 1+ goals
72%
Achuapa 2+ goals
36%
Achuapa 3+ goals
14%
Xelajú 1+ goals
59%
Xelajú 2+ goals
22%
Xelajú 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Achuapa (draw refunded)
63%
Xelajú (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achuapa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 123 matches

Xelajú away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.30 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achuapa attack 1.25 + Xelajú defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Xelajú attack 0.75 + Achuapa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Achuapa scores more
45%
level
29%
Xelajú scores more
26%

Achuapa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Achuapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Achuapa vs Xelajú

Achuapa beat Xelajú 1-0 in Liga Nacional on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Winston Pineda in Jutiapa.