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Achuapa vs Santa Lucía — Liga Nacional 2019

Achuapa
Achuapa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
12/28/2020Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 16Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Achuapa48%
×Draw27%
Santa Lucía25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Achuapa
1.39
Santa Lucía
0.93

Achuapa creates 49% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 83 away

creates per match

Achuapa
1.25
Santa Lucía
0.84

allows per match

Achuapa
1.02
Santa Lucía
1.52

finishing

Achuapa+0.00on par
Santa Lucía+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achuapa ↓

Santa Lucía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Achuapa or draw
75%
Achuapa or Santa Lucía
73%
Draw or Santa Lucía
52%

Winning margin

Achuapa wins by 2+
23%
Santa Lucía wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Achuapa 1+ goals
75%
Achuapa 2+ goals
40%
Achuapa 3+ goals
16%
Santa Lucía 1+ goals
61%
Santa Lucía 2+ goals
24%
Santa Lucía 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Achuapa (draw refunded)
65%
Santa Lucía (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achuapa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 123 matches

Santa Lucía away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achuapa attack 1.25 + Santa Lucía defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Santa Lucía attack 0.84 + Achuapa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Achuapa scores more
48%
level
27%
Santa Lucía scores more
25%

Achuapa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Achuapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Achuapa 1–0 Santa Lucía

Achuapa beat Santa Lucía 1-0 in Liga Nacional on December 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza in El Progreso, Jutiapa.