Achuapa 2–0 Comunicaciones: Result & Stats

Achuapa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Comunicaciones

11/26/2023

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 16Estadio Winston Pineda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Achuapa40%

×Draw28%

Comunicaciones32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AchuapaExpected goals in this matchComunicaciones

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Achuapa

1.23

Comunicaciones

1.06

Achuapa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 157 away

1.25

creates per match

1.11

1.02

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Achuapa

1.25

Comunicaciones

1.11

allows per match

Achuapa

1.02

Comunicaciones

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Achuapa+0.00on par

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achuapa ↓

Comunicaciones →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Achuapa or draw

68%

Achuapa or Comunicaciones

72%

Draw or Comunicaciones

60%

Winning margin

Achuapa wins by 2+

17%

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Achuapa 1+ goals

71%

Achuapa 2+ goals

35%

Achuapa 3+ goals

13%

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

65%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

29%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Achuapa (draw refunded)

56%

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achuapa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 123 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achuapa attack 1.25 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Comunicaciones attack 1.11 + Achuapa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Achuapa scores more

40%

level

28%

Comunicaciones scores more

32%

Achuapa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Achuapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff