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Achuapa vs Antigua GFC — Liga Nacional 2019

Achuapa
Achuapa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
2/18/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 6Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Achuapa42%
×Draw28%
Antigua GFC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Achuapa
1.30
Antigua GFC
1.07

Achuapa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 155 away

creates per match

Achuapa
1.25
Antigua GFC
1.12

allows per match

Achuapa
1.02
Antigua GFC
1.35

finishing

Achuapa+0.00on par
Antigua GFC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achuapa ↓

Antigua GFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Achuapa or draw
69%
Achuapa or Antigua GFC
72%
Draw or Antigua GFC
58%

Winning margin

Achuapa wins by 2+
19%
Antigua GFC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Achuapa 1+ goals
73%
Achuapa 2+ goals
37%
Achuapa 3+ goals
14%
Antigua GFC 1+ goals
66%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
29%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Achuapa (draw refunded)
58%
Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achuapa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 123 matches

Antigua GFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achuapa attack 1.25 + Antigua GFC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Antigua GFC attack 1.12 + Achuapa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Achuapa scores more
42%
level
28%
Antigua GFC scores more
31%

Achuapa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Achuapa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Achuapa vs Antigua GFC

Antigua GFC beat Achuapa 2-0 in Liga Nacional on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Ariza in El Progreso, Jutiapa.