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Aceuchal vs Plasencia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Aceuchal
Aceuchal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plasencia
Plasencia
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 6Polideportivo Municipal Aceuchal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Aceuchal43%
×Draw28%
Plasencia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aceuchal
1.27
Plasencia
0.97

Aceuchal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 57 away

creates per match

Aceuchal
1.14
Plasencia
0.86

allows per match

Aceuchal
1.07
Plasencia
1.40

finishing

Aceuchal+0.00on par
Plasencia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aceuchal ↓

Plasencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aceuchal or draw
72%
Aceuchal or Plasencia
72%
Draw or Plasencia
57%

Winning margin

Aceuchal wins by 2+
19%
Plasencia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aceuchal 1+ goals
72%
Aceuchal 2+ goals
36%
Aceuchal 3+ goals
14%
Plasencia 1+ goals
62%
Plasencia 2+ goals
25%
Plasencia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aceuchal (draw refunded)
60%
Plasencia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aceuchal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

Plasencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aceuchal attack 1.14 + Plasencia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Plasencia attack 0.86 + Aceuchal defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aceuchal scores more
43%
level
28%
Plasencia scores more
28%

Aceuchal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aceuchal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Aceuchal 2–0 Plasencia

Aceuchal beat Plasencia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Aceuchal in Aceuchal.