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Acero vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Acero
Acero
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Castellón II
Castellón II
11/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 13Estadio El Fornás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Acero42%
×Draw27%
Castellón II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Acero
1.38
Castellón II
1.16

Acero creates 19% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 67 away

creates per match

Acero
1.22
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Acero
1.10
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Acero+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acero ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Acero or draw
68%
Acero or Castellón II
73%
Draw or Castellón II
58%

Winning margin

Acero wins by 2+
20%
Castellón II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Acero 1+ goals
75%
Acero 2+ goals
40%
Acero 3+ goals
16%
Castellón II 1+ goals
69%
Castellón II 2+ goals
32%
Castellón II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Acero (draw refunded)
57%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Acero at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Acero attack 1.22 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Acero defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Acero scores more
42%
level
27%
Castellón II scores more
32%

Acero at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Acero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Acero 1–1 Castellón II

Acero and Castellón II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Fornás in El Port de Sagunt.