Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Accrington ST vs York — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
19:45
York
York
1/19/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 26The Wham Stadium
40%
Accrington ST
model favours
40%26%34%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Accrington ST40%
×Draw26%
York34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.38
York
1.24

Accrington ST creates 11% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.35
York
1.13

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.35
York
1.40

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
66%
Accrington ST or York
74%
Draw or York
60%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
19%
York wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
75%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
40%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
16%
York 1+ goals
71%
York 2+ goals
35%
York 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
54%
York (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.35 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

York attack 1.13 + Accrington ST defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Accrington ST scores more
40%
level
26%
York scores more
34%

Accrington ST at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Accrington ST and York have never met before
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face York (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting York. Match starts January 19, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host York at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.