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Accrington ST vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
14:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
4/24/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 43The Wham Stadium
Big match
39%
Swindon Town
model favours
34%27%39%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Accrington ST34%
×Draw27%
Swindon Town39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.20
Swindon Town
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.94
Swindon Town
1.34

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.27
Swindon Town
1.46

finishing

Accrington ST+0.24scores more
Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
61%
Accrington ST or Swindon Town
73%
Draw or Swindon Town
66%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
14%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
70%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
34%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
12%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
73%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
38%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
46%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.94 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Accrington ST defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more
34%
level
27%
Swindon Town scores more
39%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Accrington ST
Balanced
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
47%Possession53%
62%Pass accuracy72%
11.4Shots12.5
0.91xGBiggest gap1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STSwindon Town

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Accrington ST
3
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 63%
2–24–00–02–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Swindon Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Swindon Town. Match starts April 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Swindon Town at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.