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Accrington ST vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
11/28/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Accrington ST38%
×Draw26%
Swindon Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.36
Swindon Town
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 155 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.30
Swindon Town
1.45

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.23
Swindon Town
1.43

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
63%
Accrington ST or Swindon Town
74%
Draw or Swindon Town
62%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
17%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
74%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
39%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
16%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
74%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
39%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
51%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.30 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Accrington ST defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more
38%
level
26%
Swindon Town scores more
37%

Accrington ST at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Accrington ST 3–4 Swindon Town

Swindon Town beat Accrington ST 4-3 in League Two on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.