Accrington ST vs Salford City: Preview & Prediction

Accrington ST

Preview

15:00

Salford City

11/21/2026

League Two · Round 16The Wham Stadium

Big match

40%

Salford City

model favours

34%26%40%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Accrington ST34%

×Draw26%

Salford City40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.41

Accrington ST

1.26

Salford City

1.41

Salford City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

0.94

creates per match

1.55

1.27

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.94

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.27

Salford City

1.58

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.24scores more

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

60%

Accrington ST or Salford City

74%

Draw or Salford City

66%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

14%

Salford City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

72%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

36%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

13%

Salford City 1+ goals

76%

Salford City 2+ goals

41%

Salford City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

45%

Salford City (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.94 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Salford City attack 1.55 + Accrington ST defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Accrington ST scores more

34%

level

26%

Salford City scores more

40%

Salford City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Accrington ST sit 16, Salford City 4 in the table
Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)
Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Accrington ST

Balanced

Salford City

Attack-heavy

47%Possession52%

62%Pass accuracy67%

11.4Shots12.9

0.91xGBiggest gap1.73

Accrington STSalford City

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

4

Accrington ST

0

Draws

2

Salford City

Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%

1–01–22–10–23–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

ST

WDLDD

City

WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Salford City (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Salford City. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Salford City at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Accrington ST vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Accrington ST face Salford City (League Two)