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Accrington ST vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
15:00
Northampton
Northampton
10/31/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 14The Wham Stadium
Big match
37%
Accrington ST
model favours
37%27%37%
1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Accrington ST37%
×Draw27%
Northampton37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.29
Northampton
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 88 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.35
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.35
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
63%
Accrington ST or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
63%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
16%
Northampton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
72%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
37%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
14%
Northampton 1+ goals
72%
Northampton 2+ goals
37%
Northampton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
50%
Northampton (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.35 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Northampton attack 1.24 + Accrington ST defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more
37%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
37%

Accrington ST at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Accrington ST
Defensively solid
Northampton
Balanced
47%Possession48%
62%Pass accuracy65%
11.4ShotsBiggest gap11.9
0.88xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STNorthampton

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Accrington ST
3
Draws
4
Northampton
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
0–01–00–11–15–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Northampton (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Northampton. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Northampton at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.