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Academica vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018

Academica
Academica
Preview
15:00
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
4/25/2027Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 31Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra
Big match
42%
Academica
model favours
42%28%30%
1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Academica42%
×Draw28%
Sporting CP B30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.29
Sporting CP B
1.04

Academica creates 24% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 26 away

creates per match

Academica
1.23
Sporting CP B
0.96

allows per match

Academica
1.12
Sporting CP B
1.35

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Academica or draw
70%
Academica or Sporting CP B
72%
Draw or Sporting CP B
58%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
19%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
72%
Academica 2+ goals
37%
Academica 3+ goals
14%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
65%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
28%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
58%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.12 · 65 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.23 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Academica defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Academica scores more
42%
level
28%
Sporting CP B scores more
30%

Academica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Academica
Balanced
Sporting CP B
Balanced
50%Possession55%
—Pass accuracy82%
8.0ShotsBiggest gap10.2
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AcademicaSporting CP B

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Academica
2
Draws
2
Sporting CP B
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 50%
0–01–20–02–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Academica
LLLW
B
DLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Academica vs Sporting CP B — Match Preview

Academica face Sporting CP B on April 25, 2027 in this Segunda Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Academica host Sporting CP B at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.