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Academica vs Oliveira Hospital — Taça de Portugal 2018

Academica
Academica
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
9/24/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Academica47%
×Draw23%
Oliveira Hospital30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.77
Oliveira Hospital
1.36

Academica creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Academica
1.33
Oliveira Hospital
1.40

allows per match

Academica
1.33
Oliveira Hospital
2.20

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Academica or draw
70%
Academica or Oliveira Hospital
77%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
53%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
25%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
83%
Academica 2+ goals
53%
Academica 3+ goals
26%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
74%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
39%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
61%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Oliveira Hospital defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.40 + Academica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Academica scores more
47%
level
23%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
30%

Academica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academica vs Oliveira Hospital

Academica beat Oliveira Hospital 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.