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Académica do Lobito vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
FT
2 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
10/12/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 8Estádio do Buraco (Lobito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Académica do Lobito51%
×Draw30%
Santa Rita19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Lobito
1.23
Santa Rita
0.63

Académica do Lobito creates 95% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 68 away

creates per match

Académica do Lobito
1.13
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Académica do Lobito
0.76
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw
81%
Académica do Lobito or Santa Rita
70%
Draw or Santa Rita
49%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
23%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
71%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
35%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
13%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
47%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
13%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
73%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more
51%
level
30%
Santa Rita scores more
19%

Académica do Lobito at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Académica do Lobito 2–0 Santa Rita

Académica do Lobito beat Santa Rita 2-0 in Girabola on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Buraco (Lobito).