Académica do Lobito 2–0 Desportivo Huíla

Académica do Lobito

FT

2 – 0

Desportivo Huíla

11/22/2023

Girabola · Round 5Estádio do Buraco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Académica do Lobito45%

×Draw31%

Desportivo Huíla24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Académica do LobitoExpected goals in this matchDesportivo Huíla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.76

Académica do Lobito

1.17

Desportivo Huíla

0.76

Académica do Lobito creates 54% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 100 away

1.13

creates per match

0.76

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Académica do Lobito

1.13

Desportivo Huíla

0.76

allows per match

Académica do Lobito

0.76

Desportivo Huíla

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

Desportivo Huíla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw

76%

Académica do Lobito or Desportivo Huíla

69%

Draw or Desportivo Huíla

55%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+

20%

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals

69%

Académica do Lobito 2+ goals

33%

Académica do Lobito 3+ goals

11%

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

53%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

18%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)

66%

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more

45%

level

31%

Desportivo Huíla scores more

24%

Académica do Lobito at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff