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Académica do Lobito vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
FT
0 – 1
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
1/2/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 2Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Académica do Lobito41%
×Draw31%
Bravos do Maquis FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Lobito
1.11
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.85

Académica do Lobito creates 31% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 106 away

creates per match

Académica do Lobito
1.13
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

Académica do Lobito
0.76
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw
72%
Académica do Lobito or Bravos do Maquis FC
69%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
59%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
17%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
67%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
30%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
10%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
57%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
21%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
60%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more
41%
level
31%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
28%

Académica do Lobito at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Académica do Lobito vs Bravos do Maquis FC

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Académica do Lobito 1-0 in Girabola on January 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.