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Academia Anzoátegui vs Fundacion AIFI — Segunda División 2018

Academia Anzoátegui
Academia Anzoátegui
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
4/16/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 6Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Academia Anzoátegui52%
×Draw27%
Fundacion AIFI20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Anzoátegui
1.41
Fundacion AIFI
0.77

Academia Anzoátegui creates 83% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

creates per match

Academia Anzoátegui
1.23
Fundacion AIFI
0.85

allows per match

Academia Anzoátegui
0.68
Fundacion AIFI
1.59

finishing

Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par
Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Anzoátegui ↓

Fundacion AIFI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Academia Anzoátegui or draw
80%
Academia Anzoátegui or Fundacion AIFI
73%
Draw or Fundacion AIFI
48%

Winning margin

Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+
26%
Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals
76%
Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals
41%
Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals
17%
Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
54%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
18%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)
72%
Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Anzoátegui at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Fundacion AIFI away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Anzoátegui attack 1.23 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Fundacion AIFI attack 0.85 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Academia Anzoátegui scores more
52%
level
27%
Fundacion AIFI scores more
20%

Academia Anzoátegui at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Academia Anzoátegui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Academia Anzoátegui 1 – 0 Fundacion AIFI

Academia Anzoátegui beat Fundacion AIFI 1-0 in Segunda División on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui in Puerto la Cruz.