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AC Oulu vs VPS — Suomen Cup 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VPS
VPS
6/22/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 6th RoundRaatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AC Oulu25%
×Draw20%
VPS55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
2.34

VPS creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
2.00
VPS
4.00

allows per match

AC Oulu
0.69
VPS
1.10

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par
VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
45%
AC Oulu or VPS
80%
Draw or VPS
75%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
11%
VPS wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
79%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
46%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
20%
VPS 1+ goals
90%
VPS 2+ goals
67%
VPS 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
31%
VPS (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

VPS away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 2.00 + VPS defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

VPS attack 4.00 + AC Oulu defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AC Oulu scores more
25%
level
20%
VPS scores more
55%

VPS at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AC Oulu 0 – 0 VPS

AC Oulu and VPS drew 0-0 in Suomen Cup on June 22, 2023.

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.