AC Oulu 1–1 Mariehamn: Result & Stats

AC Oulu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mariehamn

5/17/2024

Veikkausliiga · Round 7Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AC Oulu44%

×Draw26%

Mariehamn30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC OuluExpected goals in this matchMariehamn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

AC Oulu

1.48

Mariehamn

1.19

AC Oulu creates 24% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 120 away

1.26

creates per match

1.02

1.36

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

AC Oulu

1.26

Mariehamn

1.02

allows per match

AC Oulu

1.36

Mariehamn

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par

Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

Mariehamn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw

70%

AC Oulu or Mariehamn

74%

Draw or Mariehamn

56%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+

21%

Mariehamn wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals

77%

AC Oulu 2+ goals

43%

AC Oulu 3+ goals

19%

Mariehamn 1+ goals

70%

Mariehamn 2+ goals

33%

Mariehamn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)

59%

Mariehamn (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.26 + Mariehamn defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mariehamn attack 1.02 + AC Oulu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Oulu scores more

44%

level

26%

Mariehamn scores more

30%

AC Oulu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff